Editor’s Note: In addition to being a pastor of preaching and vision at the International Baptist Church in Santo Domingo, Dr. Miguel Nuez has been practicing medicine in various specialties for more than thirty-five years and is certified in Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases. He was also an assistant clinical professor at Mount Sinai School of Medicine (1989-97) at Englewood Hospital and Medical Center in Englewood, New Jersey, so we contacted him for information related to the current Coronavirus outbreak from a medical point. and to offer you a few words of pastoral wisdom.
Since the beginning of this year, we have been talking and hearing about a family of viruses known as Coronavirus, there are sixty-nine species of coronavirus, seven of which can affect humans, are there other viral species contracted by animals?Mainly pigs, bats and other small mammals. Its name comes from the virus surface being lumps that correspond to the proteins the virus uses to adhere to other cells it wants to infect.
- The medical community has known these viruses since the 1960s.
- However.
- It was not until 2002-2003 that the general population began to become familiar with them.
- Due to an outbreak of one of the viruses occurring in China at the time called SARS.
- (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).
- This epidemic has been contained in China.
- According to the World Health Organization.
- Only about 8.
- 000 cases have been reported with a mortality rate of between 9.
- 5% and 10%.
Ten years later, another strain of Coronavirus appeared in Saudi Arabia, with an extremely high mortality rate of 35%. Fortunately, this epidemic has also been contained. Unfortunately, 2,400 people were affected, of whom some 800 died. This virus was called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome).
We would not hear of a similar virus until December 2019, the first reports of respiratory syndrome have been reported, again in China, specifically in Wuhan Province, the virus was called COvid-2 SARS disease and COVID-19 (coronavirus disease, 2019).
There are rumors that this virus has mutated, although medical authorities have not recognized any mutations.
To date, the virus has spread to more than 115 countries, as of 11 March, more than 126,300 cases had been reported in infected countries, of which 68,285 patients have fully recovered, approximately 53,382 cases are considered active and more than 4,633 people from active cases, 89% appear to be in low severity conditions and the rest in severe or critical conditions.
The average mortality rate is around 3. 4%. The highest mortality rate was recorded in Italy, estimated at just under 6%. The lowest mortality rate was reported in South Korea, estimated at approximately 0. 7%.
It is important to note that the mortality rate of this coronavirus species (COVID-19) is not comparable to the two Coronaviruses mentioned above, in fact, the mortality of this new epidemic will likely end up being much lower than reported. since up to 20% of patients are completely asymptomatic, so they will not be diagnosed, if the number of coronavirus cases increases the denominator with the consequent reduction of the mortality rate.
The patients most at risk are those over 60 years of age and those with chronic, respiratory or other diseases, such as diabetes mellitus or kidney failure.
The mortality rate could end up being 1% or less, according to an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine. By comparison, common influenza in the United States has a mortality rate of about 0. 1%. However, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta estimates that between 20,000 and 50,000 people will die in the United States during the current flu season.
Transmission occurs through small droplets of fluid when coughing or sneezing, it can also be transmitted by touching objects where these droplets have been deposited, the virus enters through the lining of the mouth, nostrils or eyes, the incubation period is estimated between two and three years. fourteen days.
Many people wonder how long coronavirus can live outside the body, from several hours to several days. Viruses are microscopic organisms that live inside cells, so they are alive while the cell they live in is alive, if the environment or surface on which the virus is located is moist or has a high degree of moisture, they can remain alive for several days If the surface is dry, the virus may die within hours.
Each infected patient is estimated to transmit the virus to an average of 2. 6 people. Most cases of COVID-19 have been reported in people who have been in contact with other people infected with the virus. However, in several communities there are cases where the disease appeared without any contact with an infected person.
The closer you are to the affected person, the higher your risk of becoming infected. Please note that the CDC considers?Contact close to about 1. 8 meters from the person.
As mentioned above, 20% of patients will never develop symptoms, such as fever, cough, muscle aches, headaches, vomiting and diarrhea, flu-like symptoms, especially similar to flu.
Symptoms remain mild in 85% to 89% of cases, but 11% to 15% of cases progress to severe and critical symptoms. These patients will have shortness of breath, develop pneumonia and even hypotension or septic shock.
In general, the alarm is mainly due to the number of infected patients, not so much the mortality rate. The increase in the number of patients makes the number of deaths from this virus potentially very high.
Potentially, millions of people would have been affected by the virus once the epidemic was over. This can result in hundreds of thousands of deaths, unless we develop a vaccine or a type of treatment soon.
Most vaccine experts say we won’t have a vaccine for the next 12 to 18 months. Several antivirals are being tested, but there are currently no official recommendations for any of them.
What preventive measures should we take?
We recommend washing your hands frequently. For medical personnel facing coronavirus cases, gloves, aprons and even goggles may be necessary, depending on the procedure to be performed in the patient.
It is also recommended that, until this epidemic is considered to be under control, we minimize physical contact with other people (eg shaking hands, hugging, kissing, etc. ).
As for travel safety, it depends on the destination, if you plan to travel to a country where the number of cases has increased, it is recommended that you do not travel to that country.
For example, this week Italy declared a total quarantine. In fact, a few hours ago Italy closed most shops and restaurants, with the exception of pharmacies and supermarkets. The state of California has suspended all meetings of more than 1,000 people, and these are expected to strengthen in the immediate future. A few hours ago, U. S. President Donald Trump declared the suspension of all flights from Europe.
There is no doubt that we must be careful and responsible, both in the implementation of the recommended measures and in the maintenance of our health.
The world’s population seems to be panicking. But for Christians, it is important to emphasize that there is no reason to feel this anxiety. Especially when the God of heaven and earth is considered to be the same God who controls all microbes, atoms, or molecules.
This is a good time for Christians to show mental health, peace and hope, recognizing that our lives do not depend on the entry of a microorganism into our bodies, but depend on God, who determines the beginning and end of our history on earth.
The Apostle Paul calls us not to worry about anything (Philippians 4:6). We can call Christians to peace, even in the worst circumstances, because of God’s sovereign control over his creation.